With Election Day closing in, there are signs that a small but crucial segment of voters may back both abortion rights and Republican candidates, a dynamic that could hurt Vice President Kamala Harris in swing states and other Democratic candidates in pivotal races.
Ten states have abortion rights measures on the ballot this year, and Democratic activists express confidence that most will pass, just as every similar state measure has won approval since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022.
But they remain less certain about how many of these newly engaged abortion rights voters will then support Democratic candidates.
“The central question is, how much does abortion persuade people to vote for Democrats?” said Angela Kuefler, a Democratic strategist working on several abortion rights measures. “The issue itself is still of utmost importance to people. It is still a big driver when it comes to their vote decision. The question is just the ceiling.”
In Arizona and Nevada, the presidential race is tight, but measures enshrining abortion rights in state constitutions are expected to cruise to victory. In Montana, Democrats are struggling to hold a Senate seat but expect to pass a similar abortion rights referendum. And in Missouri, voters appear ready to back an abortion rights measure while also re-electing Senator Josh Hawley, one of the strongest opponents of abortion rights in Congress.
The result could be a strange split screen: Voters act to protect abortion rights in their states but also elect senators who have vocally supported restrictions, as well as former President Donald J. Trump, who has taken credit for overturning Roe.
There’s also the possibility that one or more of the measures could fail, an outcome that would be a first in the post-Roe environment.
The Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe energized a new coalition of independents, liberals and some moderate Republicans behind Democratic candidates. Democrats embraced the issue as never before, marching to victories in midterm elections.
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