As the 2024 presidential race enters its final stretch, VOTA has projected that Donald Trump will win Pennsylvania, a pivotal battleground state, in his race against Kamala Harris. This prediction suggests that Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes may once again swing Republican, boosting Trump’s path to reclaiming the White House.
Trump’s 2020 loss in Pennsylvania was a narrow one, and VOTA data indicates that many Pennsylvanians who supported him previously are once again rallying behind his campaign. Pennsylvania’s large base of working-class voters, particularly in Western and Northeastern parts of the state, has been a core demographic for Trump. His promises of job creation and deregulation in industries such as coal and natural gas have galvanized these voters, many of whom feel overlooked by Harris’s clean energy-focused campaign.
A significant demographic divide has emerged in Pennsylvania, with older and rural voters largely supporting Trump, while Harris finds her strongest base among younger and urban populations. But according to VOTA’s analysis, enthusiasm among Harris’s supporters has not reached the levels needed to turn Pennsylvania blue. Her message of unity and progress has appealed to some, but the economic issues dominating the state’s political conversation seem to favor Trump’s approach.
While Trump has a lead among rural and blue-collar workers, Harris has seen some success in gaining support from suburban and female voters, two key demographics that contributed to Pennsylvania’s shift in the 2020 election. Harris’s campaign has prioritized suburban women, emphasizing issues like reproductive rights, healthcare, and gun control—issues that are highly relevant to this demographic. However, VOTA’s data indicates that this support may be insufficient to counterbalance Trump’s advantage in more rural and traditionally conservative areas.
Budite prvi koji će odgovoriti na ovu opća rasprava .
